Monday, August 31, 2009

It Was Only a Matter of Time...

The only way you could not know about the recent story about Jaycee Dugard being found after eighteen years of being held captive and being sexually molested by her kidnapper - including giving birth to two daughters.

It was only a matter of time before a self-proclaimed psychic would stand up and take credit for finding her. And that psychic was Dayle Schear of Reno Nevada. There is precisely NOWHERE that Schear has made available evidence of her claims. Everything that is being reported is both vague, general and after the fact. Even on her own home page - where she could have unfettered opportunity to make specific claims - even after the fact. (Though the veracity of that would, I guarantee, come under legitimate fire.

What does exist on her home page is a link to the exact page I have linked above... except it is a link to a PDF of a screen-capture. Why would she not link to the actual page? It would be far easier to put a link rather than create what is in effect a whole new page.

Well the answer is too simple. The comments stream on the original news story VERY quickly get to the root of her failure. The criticisms are spot-on. Schear herself has added a response to the comment stream and it reads as nothing but sour grapes:

Geez Dayle, ever hear of sentence structure? And why ALL CAPS? Just a wee bit defensive, aren't we? Or is that because you know you are full of shit? The lady doth protest too much.

Let's be clear here - psychics did squat for Jaycee. The two heroes of the day were a pair of attentive police officers who are willing to admit that they were picking up on subtle cues from Jaycee's daughters and their creepy captor/rapist/father other words good perceptive police work.

Let's take a look at some of the vague claims that Schear is making:

"But Jaycee's case always stuck out in her mind."

So you say Dayle, so you say. If you can provide evidence of that, then we can talk. Say, for example, all those journals you made while you were sitting up at night thinking about his poor girl. All the overwrought hand-wringing you went through as you sat there not coming up with psychic information that could set her free.

"I looked her in the eyes and I said please do not give up on this child...eventually she'll walk through the door, you're going to see her again."

For starters, when Terry Probyn, Jaycee's mother, confirms this then we can take it seriously, but for now it is nothing but the claim of the person making the initial claim - no evidence whatsoever.

But let's say we take Dayle at her word for a moment...

Okay... how many other times has she said similar things to parents unfortunate and desperate enough to consult with her? How many of those kids have been returned? How many have come back dead? This is cherry-picking of the grossest degree. It is despicable. Schear is trying to claim success and piggy-back her reputation on this tragedy-turned-nominal-triumph. Her ilk - including Sylvia Browne and John Edward - disgust me, leveraging tragedy into profit. You are no better than Phillip and Nancy Garrido, Jaycee's captors, themselves.

"I described general area...."

Obviously it was pretty fucking general - to the point of being useless. So general that it could have been practically any neighbourhood, 'cause if she described it with any real specificity they would have found Jaycee eighteen years ago! Jaycee thanks you for all your help Dayle - eighteen years of rape was a delight.

"...and how she was being held I said it was sexual..."

As to being sexual in nature - the number of times cases like this aren't sexual is extremely nominal. The chances that it was sexual was almost a certainty. This is a very high probability hit. Gee you really went out on a limb there - assuming you even said it before this past week in the first place.

"I knew she was being held at force and she could not get to a phone to call."

Genius. Dayle Schear, you are a complete twat. Not only because of how you prey upon the desperate, but because you actually think you can get away with this bullshit. This is such a weak claim it's insulting. This goes beyond the concept of high probability hit into the territory of bloody fucking obvious. You aren't just a scam-artist you are treating me and everyone else listening to the garbage coming from your mouth like we are idiots, so why should I treat you with any respect whatsoever you - I repeat - twat.

If Jaycee was alive at all she would have been being held by force and not given opportunity to get to a phone. The Garridos were creeps - they weren't idiots either. ...Twat.

Again looking at high probability hits, Schear predicts:

"...that Jaycee will pull out of this with guidance and counseling, and will become a spokesperson to help others."

Yeah, so? This story is only going to go one of two ways. Either Jaycee is going to never psychologically recover - in which case she will pretty much fade into memory and end up doing something ignominious and un-news-worthy like dying of an overdose a decade from now - in which case no one will notice Schear's failure to get it right; or she will do as 'predicted' and will have a profile the likes of which Schear can tout as a viable accurate prediction.

Mark my words. That is precisely what will happen. But let's be clear - I am making the exact same prediction - using no psychic powers, merely logic and a willingness to put down a bet on a likely result.

It's wonderful that Jaycee Dugard has been found alive. It was only a matter of time before the Garridos would get sloppy. That is fantastic news - that's why it's all over the news. But had she died along the way and her body been dumped into a nearby reservoir - and found last week, the police would have passed on the sad news to the family and at best the local media would have reported it on page three below the fold... where no-one would notice that Dayle Schear's alleged prediction was wrong. ....and some other psychic would claim a 'found near water' hit, if you know your psychic debunking you know how general and high-probability that prediction is.
One of them had to be right.

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